A statistical analysis on causality test in India’s foreign market
Downloads
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.26637/MJM0803/0022Abstract
The gargantuan current account deficit was a much discussed issue in Indian economy during 2012-13. It was USD 87.8 billion, 4.8% of GDP in the financial year 2013. Accordingly the price of Rupees against Dollar has been continuously falling in the recent past. Foreign trade market has been characterized by some common scenarios. Firstly, there is a change in the composition of trade. Whereas the combined share of import of Petroleum, Electronic goods and Gold is rising, the same for Machinery, Iron and Steel is falling and Gold is rising. Secondly, major changes have been observed in the trading partners for the exportable and importable items in the past two decades. Thirdly, GDP trend has been heavily dependent on the foreign investment and external assistance. This paper examines the trend of export and import and some other parameters related with India’s foreign trade with the help of usual statistical tools. There is also an effort to find out the dependency of the India’s GDP on these parameters using causality test and multiple regression analysis.
Keywords:
Causality test, GDP, Export, Import, Trade.Mathematics Subject Classification:
Mathematics- Pages: 862-867
- Date Published: 01-07-2020
- Vol. 8 No. 03 (2020): Malaya Journal of Matematik (MJM)
Athukorala, The impact of foreign direct investment on economic growth in Sri Lanka. Sri Lankan, J. Agricultural Economics, 6(1)(2003), 1-10.
Bhandari Amit and Shyamal Pal, Relationship between Wage and Labour Productivity in Indian Organised Manufacturing Industries - Evidence from Granger Causality Analysis, Labour ana Development, 12(2) (2007), 14-33.
Bruton, Henry. Import Substitution in Handbook oi Development of Economics, VoI2, North Holland, London, 1989
Carkovic, Maria and Levine, Ross, Does Foreign Investmen Accelerate Economic Growth?, Finance Department, University of Minnesota, Mimeo, 2002.
Chandra, Nirmal, Growth of Foreign Capital and important in Indian Manufacturing, Economic and Political Weekly, 26(11)(2010), 1-13.
D. A. Dicky and W. A Fuller, Distribution of the Estimator for Autoregressive Time series with a Unit Root, Journal of th American Statistical Association, 74(1979), 427_433
M. Dritsaki, C. Dristaki, A. Adamopotilos, A causs relationship between trade, foreign direct investment and economi growth of Greece, American Journal of Applied Sciences, 1(2004), 230-235.
C. W. J. Granger, Investigating Causal Relations b Econometric Models and Cross-spectral Methods, Econometric, (1969), 424
C. Hsiao, Autoregressive Modeling and Money-Incon Causality Detection, Journal of Monetary Economics, (1982). 259-275.
G. K. Helleiner, Transnational Corporations and Dire Foreign Investment in Handbook of Development Economic, Vol 2, Elsevier Science Publishers, 1989.
Hymer, Stephen, The International Operations of Natior Firms; A study of Direct Foreign Investment, MIT Press, Massachusetts, 1976.
J. Lee, Money, Income and Dynamic Lag Pattern, Southern Economic Journal, 64(1997), 97-103.
A. K. Miankhel, S. M. Thangayelu, K. Kalirajan, Foreign direct investment, export and economic growth in South Asia and selected emerging countries, A multivariate VAR analysis. Working paper 23, Centre for Contemporary Asian Studies, Doshisha University, (2009).
J. ShawaMoseph, Shen Yao, Causality Relationship between FDI, GDP growth and Export for Tabzania, International Journal of Economics and Finance, 2013.
C. A. Sims, Money income and Causality, AER, 62(1972), 540.
- NA
Similar Articles
- C. Jayasekaran, S. Delbin Prema, S.V. Ashwin Prakash, Relations on irredundance and domination number for six regular graph with girth 3 , Malaya Journal of Matematik: Vol. 8 No. 03 (2020): Malaya Journal of Matematik (MJM)
You may also start an advanced similarity search for this article.
Metrics
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2020 MJM
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
