An approach to statistical analysis-using the average transmission model of Covid 19

Abstract

Since receiving mysterious pneumonia patients at each district Govt. Hospital in Tamil Nadu, India in April 04, 2020-April 13, 2020, the new corona virus (COVID-19) has quickly increase in Tamil Nadu and spread to the whole State of Tamil Nadu and some neighboring states. We found the dynamics model of transmittable diseases and time series model to forecast the tendency and short-term forecast of the spread of COVID-19, which will be conducive to the intrusion and avoidance of COVID-19 by departments at all levels in mainland India and buy more time for medical trials. Based on the communication machinery of COVID-19 in the population and the implemented deterrence and manage measures, we establish the active models of the three chambers, and establish the average transmission model based on different mathematical formulas using authentic original data. The results based on the increasing analysis of pneumonia of COVID-19 in mainland Tamil Nadu can reach 1,377 after ten days (4-4-20202 to 13-4-2020). The results of the compassion psychotherapy shows that the time it takes for an assumed population to be diagnosed as a long-established population can have a major impact on the peak size and duration of the increasing number of diagnoses. Increased humanity leads to additional cases of pneumonia, while augmented cure rates are not sensitive to the increasing number of confirmed cases.
Indian governments at different levels have intervened in many ways to control the outbreak. According to the results of the model analysis, we suppose that the urgent situation intervention actions adopted in the early stage of the epidemic, such as overcrowding by using wearing the mask and regular hand sanitization, preventive outcome on the original spread of the epidemic. It is a very successful anticipation and handling method to continue to increase speculation in various medical resources to make sure that suspected patients can be diagnosed and treated in an appropriate method. Based on the results of the sensitivity analysis, we consider that better action of the bodies of departed patients can be helpful in ensuring that the bodies themselves and the procedure do not result in additional viral infections, and once the pneumonia patients with the COVID-19 are cured, the antibodies left in their bodies may put off them from re-infection COVID-19 for a longer era of time.